Tuesday, 19 June 2007

US bonds

The treasury bond yield is the cornerstone for valuing equities.

Since 87 amid repeated cycles, bond yields had oeaked at progressively lower points.

Reflecting steadily growing optimism that inflation had been squeezed out of the worlds system for good.

1994
In 1994 the Fed began raising rates from 3%
Within a year teh Fed funds rate had doubled to 6%
The 10yr yield rose to a peak above 8% in Nov 94, from 5.74 in Jan.
US stocks were flat in 94 and then went on to their rally.
While this meant severe losses for bond investors the riples brought a series of crises in the world's riskier markets, starting with Mexico.
However todays rise is not a inflation scare as in 94

Histrically 10yr rates have ben 0.8% above the Fed fubnds rate.

The latest data show that Asian central banks havestoped buying bonds but bought equities and corporate bonds instead.

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