reduces the NPV
raises interest exenses
bonds become more attractive compared to equity
Bonds are more sensitive to inflation
Fed Model for finding fair value of stock market
earnings yield on stocks should follow the bond yield
The fed model worked very well between 1977 to 97
But over the past 20 years bond yields and PEs moved together (teh opposite)
Other opinion: there is no relationship at all between bond yields and PEs
When investors are not worried about inflation (as now) the Fed Model does not work.
When growth is strong, bonds are less attractive than equities as payments do not increase.
There are still no great worried about inflation. So when growth prospects improve as in recent weeks bond yields go u as well as equities.
Saturday, 16 June 2007
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Blog Archive
-
▼
2007
(75)
-
▼
June
(50)
- Securisation
- Financials sector
- Melrose debt financing
- Torex asset sale
- Credit Default Swaps
- Yield curve
- Market
- Banks
- Microsoft new competition
- Shareholder adctivism
- Rising inflation expectation
- US bonds
- Sites
- Widgets
- US Bond Market Outlook
- General
- Inflation and interest rates
- Equities and Bonds
- Who deserves the credit for Germany's recovery?
- Blinkx lc
- Yahoo 2
- Yahoo
- Google/Ebay
- Money
- Corporate broking pitch
- Telecommunication sector
- Scriabin
- Spanish real estate
- France: Sarkozy
- Germany: too bullish?
- China Yuan undervalued, higher Imports
- The Role of the State
- US Option Accounting
- State Capitalism
- Venture Capital
- Inflation
- Carry trade
- Sony PS3
- German Property companies on AIM
- Venture Capital underperforms but more money raised
- Little Change in Private Equity Financing
- Japan long
- Dollar short
- US outlook
- US Government Bond Market
- Outlook for equities
- Oil and bio fuels
- The four pillars supporting risky assets
-
▼
June
(50)
No comments:
Post a Comment