Thursday, 14 June 2007

Germany: too bullish?

2006 2.6% growth
2007 3%+

Started off as export led recovery

Improvements in relative competitiveness through wage moderation.

This is not a longer term thing

Challenging by emerging market players in electrical and mechanical engineering

The growth story is simply a story of employment growth and until now not productivity growth (output per hour).

Export success to a large extend in energy price induced markets like Russia and the Middle East

Quality of education system.

When normality returns German growth should return to 1.5%

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